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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">scienceit</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Наука. Инновации. Технологии</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Science. Innovations. Technologies</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2308-4758</issn><publisher><publisher-name>North-Caucasus Federal University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.37493/2308-4758.2025.4.3</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">scienceit-748</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>НАУКИ ОБ АТМОСФЕРЕ И КЛИМАТЕ (физико-математические науки)</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ATMOSPHERIC AND CLIMATE SCIENCES (physical and mathematical sciences)</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оценка максимального размера града по термодинамическим параметрам атмосферы методами нейросетевого моделирования</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Estimation of the maximum hail size based оn thermodynamic atmosphere parameters using neural network modeling methods</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9840-3566</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Созаева</surname><given-names>Л. Т.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sozaeva</surname><given-names>L. T.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Лежинка Танашевна Созаева – кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент, старший научный сотрудник</p><p>Scopus ID: 57204527832, Researcher ID: AIC-6568-2022</p><p>д. 2, пр. Ленина, Нальчик, 360030</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Lezhinka T. Sozaeva – Cand. Sci. (Physics and Maths), Associate Professor, senior research associate of the laboratory of atmospheric convective phenomena</p><p>Scopus ID: 57204527832, Researcher ID: AIC-6568-2022</p><p>2, Lenin Avenue, Nalchik, 360001</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ljk_62@rambler.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8126-6008</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кагермазов</surname><given-names>А. Х.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kagermazov</surname><given-names>A. Kh.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Артур Хасанбиевич Кагермазов – заведующий лабораторией атмосферных кон вективных явлений, кандидат физико-математических наук</p><p>Scopus ID: 55185153100</p><p>д. 2, пр. Ленина, Нальчик, 360030</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Arthur Kh. Kagermazov – Cand. Sci. (Physics and Maths), head of the laboratory of atmospheric convective phenomena</p><p>Scopus ID: 55185153100</p><p>2, Lenin Avenue, Nalchik, 360001</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ka5408@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Высокогорный геофизический институт</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Federal state budgetary institution «High-Mountain Geophysical Institute»</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>24</day><month>01</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>69</fpage><lpage>84</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Созаева Л.Т., Кагермазов А.Х., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Созаева Л.Т., Кагермазов А.Х.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Sozaeva L.T., Kagermazov A.K.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://scienceit.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/748">https://scienceit.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/748</self-uri><abstract><p>Градобития наносят значительный ущерб экономике, особенно в аграрном секторе. Однако прогнозирование града осуществляется с недостаточной точностью. Затруднения встречает и определение размера града, который напрямую влияет на величину ущерба. Данное исследование направлено на оценку максимального размера града на основе метеорологических параметров атмосферы. Для этого подбирались данные о максимальном размере града, зафиксированные Ставропольской военизированной службой по борьбе с градом, и соответствующие им температура, влажность, направление и скорость ветра на стандартных изобарических уровнях из глобальной модели атмосферы, как замена результатов аэрологического зондирования. Исследование основывалось на методах нейросетевого моделирования, где зависимой переменной является диаметр выпавшего града, а независимыми переменными выступают атмосферные параметры. Среда SPSS позволила автоматически выбрать нейронную модель, состоящую из одного слоя с четырьмя нейронами. По результатам исследования ошибки на обучающей и тестовой выборках оказались одинаковыми, что указывает на адекватность модели. Дополнительные критерии оценки её качества, такие как диаграммы прогнозов и остатков, также подтвердили адекватность модели. Установлено, что 65 % вариации максимального размера града объясняется разработанной моделью. Ключевыми параметрами атмосферы, влияющими на максимальный размер града, оказались: индекс неустойчивости Джорджа, температура на уровне конвекции, уровень, на котором разница температур в облаке и окружающей среде достигает максимума, а также средний дефицит влажности в слое выше уровня конденсации на высоте 5 км. Было сделано заключение, что предложенная нейросетевая модель оценки размера града может эффективно применяться службами, занимающимися борьбой с градом.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Hailstorms cause significant economic damage, especially in the agricultural sector. However, hail forecasting is performed with insufficient accuracy. Determining hail size, which directly affects the magnitude of losses, is also challenging. This study aims to estimate the maximum hail size based on atmospheric meteorological parameters. To this end, we compiled data on maximum hail size recorded by the Stavropol Militarized Hail Suppression Service, together with the corresponding temperature, humidity, wind direction, and wind speed at standard isobaric levels from a global atmospheric model, used as a substitute for upper-air sounding results. The study was based on neural-network modeling methods, with the diameter of the fallen hail as the dependent variable and atmospheric parameters as the independent variables. The SPSS environment automatically selected a neural model consisting of a single layer with four neurons. According to the results, the errors on the training and test samples were identical, indicating the adequacy of the model. Additional quality assessment criteria, such as prediction and residual plots, also confirmed the adequacy of the model. The key atmospheric parameters influencing the maximum hail size were found to be: the George instability index, the temperature at the convection level, the level at which the temperature difference between the cloud and the surrounding environment reaches its maximum, and the mean moisture deficit in the layer above the condensation level at an altitude of 5 km. It was concluded that the proposed neural-network model for estimating hail size can be effectively applied by services engaged in hail suppression.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>прогноз града</kwd><kwd>максимальный размер града</kwd><kwd>глобальная модель атмосферы</kwd><kwd>параметры атмосферы</kwd><kwd>нейросетевое моделирование</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>hail forecast</kwd><kwd>maximum hail size</kwd><kwd>global atmospheric model</kwd><kwd>atmospheric parameters</kwd><kwd>neural network modeling</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Абшаев А. М. [и др.] Руководство по организации и проведению противоградовых работ / А. М. Абшаев, М. Т. Абшаев, М. В. Барекова, А. М. Малкарова. Нальчик: Печатный двор, 2014. 508 c.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Abshaev AM, Abshaev MT, Barekova MV, Malkarova AM. 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