CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION REGIME IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS REGION UNDER ARTIFICIAL REGULATION OF PRECIPITATION

Introduction. The task of artificially increasing precipitation is one of the most urgent in the general problem of active human influences on hydrometeorological processes. In general, the extensive theoretical and experimental research carried out made it possible for the first time in our country since 1985 to begin pilot production work to artificially increase precipitation in areas with insufficient natural moisture. Since 1986, large-scale experiments have been carried out on additional moistening of farmland in the Stavropol Territory. However, in the works on active exposure there are a number of unresolved problems related to the statistical assessment of their results. It is dificult to identify changes in the amount of precipitation, since precipitation is subject to significant natural fluctuations. There are assumptions that an increase in precipitation over a certain territory should be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation in another area located relatively further downwind, i.e., that the impacts do not lead to an absolute increase in precipitation, but to some redistribution over the area. The processes of redistribution of precipitation can be observed in a relatively narrow area at a distance of 85 and 120 km [1]. Materials and methods of the research. The problem of assessing the results of active impacts on clouds has arisen since the first attempts to carry out such impacts. At the same time, if the results of seeding stratus clouds that do not give precipitation could often be monitored visually or recorded on photographic ilm and using radar observations, the effects of the impact on convective cloudiness, especially in conditions of precipitation, are most often veiled by the process of their natural evolution [2]. Meanwhile, it is precisely the impacts aimed at intensifying the processes of natural sedimentation that provide the maximum absolute increment in precipitation [3]. The results of the study and their discussion. This article presents the results of a statistical assessment of the redistribution of precipitation using the historical regression method. The method is based on the use of data from long-term observations of atmospheric precipitation in protected and adjacent areas of equal size. High values of the correlation coefficients r were obtained between the precipitation-gauge rows of the adjacent territory and the control territory with estimates of the errors of their calculation (Sr) for the time period before active influences, obtained by calculating the values of the linear regression coefficients p between the precipitation-gauge rows (x-yi) and the resulting linear regression equation. Also, in this work, the three-delta method is used to assess the significance of the impact effect in a single experiment (for one season) [4-6]. Conclusions. It should be noted that the results of the statistical assessment make it possible to say that during the season of operational work to artificially increase precipitation, a redistribution of precipitation from 13% to 25% of the average monthly precipitation rate in the adjacent and control territories can be observed.

Active influences, precipitation, statistical methods, redistribution of precipitation

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