ESTIMATION OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INTENSITY OF HAIL ON GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL OUTPUT DATA GFS NCEP

Introduction. Dangerous convective weather phenomena have a pronounced tendency to increase, which necessitates the development of new approaches to their forecasting. This is favored by the operational availability of the Earth's atmospheremodelingresults. In this paper, the possibility of predicting the characteristics of hail intensity based on the atmospheric stratification values obtained by the global forecast model (GFS NCEP) is considered. Such characteristics of hail intensity as the area of dead crops and the maximum diameter of hail, which have found application in research of hail and the effectiveness of active effects on hail processes, are considered. Materials and methods of research. The research materials were the output data of the GFS NCEP global atmospheric model with a 24-hour lead time and the characteristics of hail intensity provided by paramilitary services for active impact within the radius of representativeness of the actual aerological sounding dataat the MineralnyeVody station. The parameters of the atmosphere were preliminarily calculated, the most informative ones were selected using a biserial correlation coeficient and factor analysis. The subsequent assessment of the characteristics of the hail intensity was carried out by the method of multiple regression analysis. The results of the research and their discussion. Regression equations were derived for the area of dead crops and the maximum diameter of hail. Estimation of the regression equation'sparameters characterizing the statistical significance and practical applicability of the model showed their compliance with the criteria imposed on them. Conclusions. The proposed approach to forecasting the characteristics of hail intensity according to the global atmospheric model has shown its eficiency and can be used in practice with a high-quality and sufficient amount of initial data.

global model of the atmosphere, aerological sounding, meteorological parameters, discriminant analysis, intensity of hail

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