FORECASTING SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS

Abstract

Introduction: One of the most difficult tasks facing modern synoptic meteorology is the forecasting of heavy convective storms (tornadoes). Heavy convective storms, extratropical hurricanes, tornadoes, whose products are storm-storming processes, are a dangerous natural phenomenon, which brings considerable damage to the national economy, and, sometimes, leads to human casualties. Materials and Methods: Weather forecasting at any scale consists of two main stages: diagnostics of the state of atmospheric parameters at present and forecasting their changes for a certain period of time. Results: the atmospheric parameters responsible for the occurrence of con-vective storms (humidity, vertical pressure gradient and horizontal temperature difference, and vertical wind shear) require careful analysis and observation. Such convection often arises in the form of super cells -thunderstorms, characterized by a single quasi-permanent rotating ascending current (known as mesocyclone), which persists for a certain period of time. With the help of modern observing systems, such as vertically pointing radars (called windproof devices) and satellite imaging systems, specialists can usually determine where the conditions will be favorable for the formation of a tornado. Discussion and conclusions: research and analysis of the examined natural phenomena in our country is, as you can see, fragmentary. The study and identification of the characteristics of such processes on the territory of Russia requires a comprehensive study, observations and development of methods for forecasting and preventing the development of tornadoes and hurricanes.