The influence of climatic factors on the conditions of agricultural production in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic

The object of the study is the changes in the regional climate, its impact on the production of agricultural crops and the creation of a model of winter wheat yield in the steppe zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR). The study is based on the analysis of climate changes at the steppe meteorological station Prokhladnaya (KBR). In the period 1961–2024 the increase in average annual temperatures was 0 37 °C/10 years (D = 46 %) with the highest growth rate in the summer season (0 48 °C/10 years, D = 50 %). During the study period, there was a slight positive trend in annual and seasonal precipitation amounts, with the exception of the summer season (a decrease of 5 2 mm/10 years) and the spring season since 1976 (a decrease of 0 18 mm/10 years), when sufficient soil moisture is needed. It was found that climatic changes in the steppe zone of Kabardino-Balkaria are manifested in an increase in the duration and intensity of hot weather. There is a slight decrease in precipitation in summer with a simultaneous increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall, and aridity increases in summer. Since the yield of agricultural crops depends on the interaction of various environmental factors and the specific characteristics of each plant species, this paper proposes a new approach to improving the information support for the task of reducing risks in agriculture, associated with a lack of moisture in the soil using the steppe zone of the KBR as an example. This approach involved using the values of the soil moisture supply coefficients calculated based on average monthly precipitation in March, April, May and in the summer season, and average monthly temperature in the same periods for 1961–2024 at the Prokhladnaya station. Using the least squares method, the parameters of the actual equation for calculating the yield of winter wheat were obtained. The results of the correlation analysis between the actual and estimated yield values at a 1% significance level (r = 0 54, Sig. = 0.001 < p = 0.01) showed good agreement between the actual yield values and the model ones calculated using the model formula. The new multiplicative model of winter crop yield can be used to assess changes in the yield of winter crops depending on changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture in the summer and spring seasons for the lead period.

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