Аnalysis of snow cover dynamics of the Bolshoy Azau glacier (Kabardino-Balkaria) using remote sensing and meteorological data (2018–2024)
https://doi.org/10.37493/2308-4758.2025.4.4
Abstract
The study analyzes the long-term dynamics of the snow cover of the Bolshoy Azau Glacier, located in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic. The research covers the period from 2018 to 2024 and is based on the integration of modern methods of remote sensing (RS) with in-depth statistical analysis of meteorological data. The work involved a detailed calculation of the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI), derived from long-term series of aerial photographs and satellite system data. As a result, a clear and persistent negative trend was identified, characterized by a sharp reduction in the area and duration of winter snow cover. It was established that the regression occurs at a stable average rate of approximately 0.04 NDSI units per year, indicating intensive ablation. At the same time, summer seasonal changes do not show statistically significant dynamics, remaining within the limits of interannual variability. Parallel climatic analysis revealed a significant increase in average annual and seasonal temperatures, particularly during the critical summer months, as well as a notable decrease in winter precipitation volumes, which disrupts the mass balance of the glacier. These interconnected climatic factors comprehensively and irreversibly influence the acceleration of glacier degradation, reducing its volume and area. The obtained results once again underscore the critical importance of establishing continuous systematic cryospheric monitoring and the urgent development of strategic adaptation measures. Such actions are necessary to mitigate the growing environmental and socio-economic risks directly associated with the intense transformation of the glacial cover in the vulnerable mountain environment of the North Caucasus.
Keywords
glacier degradation,
remote sensing,
avalanches,
climate,
mountain ecosystems,
Kabardino-Balkaria,
Bolshoy Azau
Supporting agencies: This study was performed with the financial support of the Revival of Nature Charitable Foundation.
About the Authors
N. E. Ryazanova
Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Natalia E. Ryazanova, Cand. Sci. (Geogr.), Associate Professor of the Department of International Complex Problems of Environmental Management and Ecology
76/1 Vernadskogo Ave., Moscow, 119454
A. D. Kurakova
Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anastasia D. Kurakova, 3rd year student, Ecology and Environmental Management program, holder of the Nature Revival grant
76/1 Vernadskogo Ave., Moscow, 119454
A. A. Gaisina
Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Aisylu A. Gaisina, 3rd year student, Ecology and Environmental Management program, holder of the Nature Revival grant
76/1 Vernadskogo Ave., Moscow, 119454
References
1. Report on the Features of the Climate on the Territory of the Russian Federation for 2024. M.: Moscow State University Publishing House; 2025. 104 p. (In Russ.).
2. Melnik AV, Rototaev YuG, Kotlyakov VM. Current State and Dynamics of the Glaciers in the Elbrus Region According to Remote Sensing Data. Earth’s Cryosphere. 2021;25(3):56-67. (In Russ.).
3. Seinova IB, Zolotarev EA. Glaciers and Mudflows of the Elbrus Region (Evolution of Glaciation and Mudflow Activity.) M.: Nauchnyy Mir; 2001. 203 p. (In Russ.).
4. Oleinikov AD, Volodicheva NA. Winters of Avalanche Maximum in the Greater Caucasus over the Period of Instrumental Observations (1968-2016). Ice and Snow. 2020;60(4):567-578. https://doi.org/10.31857/S2076673420040057 (In Russ.).
5. Akimov VA, Sokolov YuI. The Largest Emergencies in Russia and the World in 2005. Civil Protection Strategy: Problems and Research. 2014. No. 1. Available from: URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/naibolee-krupnye-chrezvychaynye-situatsii-v-rossii-i-mire-v-2005-godu (Accessed 10 September 2025). (In Russ.).
6. Razumov VV, Kalov RO, Bogdanova ND, Razumova NV, Likhovid NG. Activity and Hazard of Rockfall and Talus Processes in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic. Science. Innovations. Technologies. 2023;(4): 119–153. (In Russ.).
7. Vasilchuk YuK, Chizhova YuN, Budantseva NA. Rapid Reduction of the Bolshoy Azau Glacier in the Elbrus Region Against the Background of Stable Climatic Conditions and the Associated Risks. Georisk. 2010;(2):16-29. (In Russ.).
8. Tashilova A. Analysis of climate change in Terskol over the last 60 years. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2021. Vol. 840.012038. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/840/1/012038.
9. Degtyareva TV, Shalnev VA, Lysenko AV. Geochemical Fields of Rocks and Soils of the Greater Caucasus: An Evolutionary Approach and Research Methods. Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories. Vladikavkaz: SKGMI Publishing House; 2017. P. 219-230. (In Russ.).
10. Bekkiev MYu, Dokukin MD, Kalov RKh, Tashilova AA. Modern Degradation of Valley Glaciers of the Central Caucasus. Fundamental and Applied Climatology. 2021;8(3):113-141. https://doi.org/10.21513/2410-8758-2021-3-113-141. (In Russ.).
11. Solomina ON, Bushuyeva IS, Volodicheva NA, Dolgova EA. Age of the Bolshoy Azau Glacier Moraines in the Upper Baksan River Valley Based on Dendrochronological Data. Ice and Snow. 2021;61(2):271-290. https://doi.org/10.31857/S2076673421020088. (In Russ.).
12. Tielidze LG, Nosenko GA, Khromova TE, Paul F. Strong acceleration of glacier area loss in the Greater Caucasus between 2000 and 2020. The Cryosphere. 2022;(16):489-504. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-489-2022.
13. Vasyuchenko VV, Chizhova YuA, Budanov AK, Mukhametov MV. Retrospective assessment of mass balance changes of the Azau glacier (Central Caucasus) over 150 years. Ice and Snow. 2010;109(1):19-32. (In Russ.).
14. Lysenko AV. Natural Factors in the Formation of Cultural Landscapes of the North Caucasus Bulletin of APC Stavropol. 2013;4(12):190-193. (In Russ.).
15. Official website of the company “Raspisanie Pogody” LLC Available from: https://rp5.ru/Архив_погоды_в_Терсколе (Accessed 09 June 2025). (In Russ.).
16. Shchitova NA, Chikhichin VV. Comparative Analysis of Socio-Economic Development of the North Caucasus Regions. Science. Innovations. Technologies. 2014;(1):161-174. (In Russ.).
17. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Melting Glaciers Will Cause an Avalanche of Cascading Consequences WMO News. 2025. Available from: https://wmo.int/ru/news/media-centre/tayanie-lednikov-vyzovet-lavinu-kaskadnykh-posledstviy (Accessed 26 November 2025). (In Russ.).
18. Vasilchuk VV, Chizh VI, Budko MV. Rapid Reduction of the Bolshoy Azau Glacier in the Elbrus Region against the backdrop of stable climatic conditions and the risks that arise. Georisk. 2010;(2):10-14. (In Russ.).
19. Ostanin EA. Environmental Consequences of the Degradation of the Caucasus Glaciers. Ecological Bulletin of the North Caucasus. 2025;(3):45-52. URL: https://www.geoinfo.ru/product/sluzhba-novostej-geoinfo/kakie-ehkologicheskie-posledstviya-vlechet-za-soboj-ischeznovenie-lednik (Accessed 26 November 2025). (In Russ.).
20. Ivanov TP. Reduction of Water Resources in the Region as a Problem of Sustainable Development. International Research Journal. 2023;(1):102-109. – https://doi.org/10.23670/IRJ.2023.127.70. (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Ryazanova N.E., Kurakova A.D., Gaisina A.A. Аnalysis of snow cover dynamics of the Bolshoy Azau glacier (Kabardino-Balkaria) using remote sensing and meteorological data (2018–2024). Science. Innovations. Technologies. 2025;(4):85-104. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.37493/2308-4758.2025.4.4
Views:
246
JATS XML
Email this article 