Optimizing the structure of agricultural production with account of hail forecasts

Hazardous weather phenomena cause enormous damage to the entire national economy. Hail storms, heavy rains, frosts, droughts, sand and dust storms are detrimental to agriculture. In this regard, currently one of the crop production problems is to reduce the risks associated with dangerous weather phenomena. The object of this study is the optimization of the structure of agricultural production with account of hail storms. To decrease hail storms damage, it is customary to use active methods related to the impact on hail processes in order to suppress them, and passive methods, namely the establishment of various anti-hail nets. The study proposes a method of decision-taking theory as a part of mathematical modeling methods: optimization of the structure of cultivated crops taking into consideration the peculiarities of their sensitivity to hail damage. In addition, adjustments are being made to the effectiveness of measures to decrease hail storms damage. Measures can be developed by the director if the company is provided with a hail forecast. The optimization problem is solved with the reference to the adjusted damageability coefficient introduced in accordance with the hail-warning forecast up to three days. To solve the problem, numerical experiments are carried out using the «Solution Search» add-in for Excel. In the course of the work, it was found that the proposed approach, which requires the formation of an action plan taking into account the hail forecast, is highly effective in decreasing hail storms damage and regulating the amount of profit from crop production. According to the results of the research, it was concluded that providing the industry with a hail-warning forecast up to three days will reduce the risks from hail storms.

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