PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, SOIL GEOGRAPHY AND LANDSCAPE GEOCHEMISTRY (GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES)
Mouse-like rodents in natural plague foci occupy an important place as potential reservoirs of the causative agent of this dangerous disease, acting in some cases as the main or secondary carriers of the pathogen. On the territory of the Republic of Dagestan, characterized by a variety of natural conditions – from flat dry deserts to foothills and highlands, with an abundance of anthropogenic biotopes, this group of small mammals is quite widely represented in terms of species diversity. This work is based on the analysis of the results of long-term epizootological monitoring over the period 2010–2021 carried out in three natural foci of plague: Dagestan plain-foothill, Caspian sandy and East Caucasian high-mountain and tularemia (Plain-foothill steppe, Terek-Kuma floodplain-marsh and Highmountain foothill-mountain-stream). To assess the selectivity of a species in choosing a biotope, the authors used the degree of biotopic confinement Fij (Y.A. Pesenko, 1982). All calculations were carried in Microsoft Office Excel. In these calculations, eurytopic species dominated, which can participate in the epizootic process during periods of activation of foci, contributing to the spread of infectious agents. It was revealed that most species are confined to moist biotopes of river banks and canals, which can be habitats for small mammals during periods of population depression. In this biotope, it is necessary to conduct a more thorough epizootological examination for tularemia and other particularly dangerous infections. The proposed method will make it possible to streamline the control of mouse-like rodents and optimize the work of epizootological examination on the territory of the Republic of Dagestan.
In the steppe zone of the Southeastern Pre-Caucasus, mainly on light chestnut soils, salt marshes are widespread. They are inhabited by a very characteristic and peculiar fauna of ground beetles, associated in their development with saline soils. However, to date, there are very few special scientific studies devoted to ground beetles of saline biotopes of the studied territory of the Eastern Caucasus, the study of their ecology and biology, which determined the purpose of research aimed at solving the above problems. Registration of the population composition of halophilic herpetobiont ground beetles, population dynamics, ecological structure and geographical analysis were studied. In the course of the study, an analysis of the ecological and zoogeographic characteristics of ground beetles was carried out, the ratio of different species of ground beetles of the Southeastern Caucasus was revealed. It has been specified that some species can serve as an indicator of the presence of salt marshes. Halophilic complexes of ground beetles of the steppe zone (the studied region) are currently under constant threat of human destruction. The floodplains in the lower reaches of the Kuma, the Sulak and other steppe rivers are actively exterminated, which naturally leads to the depletion of the salt marsh fauna of ground beetles, the original representatives of halophytic stations disappear – Scarites angustus Chaud., Clivina laevifrons Chaud., Dyschirius pusillus Dej., Bembidion quadriplagiatum Motsch., B. normannum Dej., Pogonus reticulatus Schaum., P. cumanus Lutschn and other.
ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE SCIENCES
Long-term average values of atmospheric air temperature (annual, autumn, winter, spring and summer) are one of the key points used to make scientifically valid decisions on the adaptation of crops to changing climate and environmental conditions. Despite their widespread use for the analysis and forecasting of various meteorological parameters of the atmosphere, the nature of such series has not yet been sufficiently studied. This determines the relevance of detailed analysis and forecasting of time series of atmospheric air temperature. At the same time, they are considered to be formed under the influence of linear and cyclic factors. To identify cyclical components, one of the most powerful and adequate time series analysis tools called phase analysis is used. In this study, a phase portrait of the time series of average air temperatures for the autumn period at the Nalchik weather station from 1961 to 2022 is constructed for preforecast analysis. To select the most significant periods of quasi-cycles, the theory of fuzzy logic is used. On its basis an algorithm for the formation of a fuzzy set of quasi-cycle lengths is implemented. Further prediction of the values of the time series in the retrospective section is carried out by the least square method. Further forecasting of time series values in the retrospective section is carried out using the least squares method. According to the results of the conducted research, it was found that the proposed model makes it possible to predict the values of average autumn air temperatures with high accuracy (5%). In the time series of average autumn air temperatures, a cycle characteristic of the 11-year cycle of solar activity and its phases is traced. All the quality criteria of the proposed model meet the requirements for the quality and adequacy of forecast models. This model can be applied to the analysis and forecasting of the average values of atmospheric air temperatures for the spring, summer and winter periods, as well as the average annual temperatures in general. The research has shown that the time series characterizing the temperature regime of atmospheric air, which is very complex in nature, can be predicted using phase analysis.
The object of the study is a dangerous slope phenomenon (mudflow) in the mountains of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) against the background of changing climatic conditions of the warm season (May-September). The paper presents the results of statistical, frequency and regression analysis of the dynamics of the number of mudflows, precipitation amounts, and average temperatures in the high-mountain zone of the KBR in the period 1953–2015. Statistical analysis of time series was carried out using the SPSS 20.0 software package. Linear trends were generated using Excel built-in LINEST worksheet function. The efficiency (coefficient of determination R2 ) and quality of regression models in general and by parameters were assessed using the Fisher test (F) and their significance (Sig.). The t-test was used to identify statistical equality or inequality of means between two periods. It was found that in the period 1953–2015 there was a slight increase in precipitation and average temperature. When analyzing the statistics of series in two periods 1953–1984 and 1984–2015, it was found that the average and total characteristics of the number of mudflows, precipitation and temperatures increase in the second period. Frequency analysis showed that out of 499 cases of mudflows over 63 years, 32% occurred in 9 cases per season (May-September). Frequency analysis confirmed the homogeneity of the distribution of precipitation amounts: in almost 60% of cases, the precipitation amount varies in a narrow range from 92.7 mm to 104.1 mm. For a number of temperatures, the most common (37%) was the average temperature of the warm season t = 10.2 °C; 31% corresponded to the temperature range from 10.7 °C to 11.8 °C. The analysis allows us to talk about an increase in the frequency of dangerous slope phenomena against the background of modern climate change, including in the high mountains.
GEOECOLOGY
The article provides measurement results and an assessment of the noise load on the territory of the «Perspektivny» and «Rossiysky» residential complexes in Stavropol. Noise measurements were carried out in the spring-summer and autumn-winter periods of 2022–2023. The measurement results are presented as average noise exposure levels. Based on the data obtained, a mathematical model of the propagation of noise from traffic flow during the deciduous and leafless period was built. To conduct a study and assess the noise load in a multistorey building on the territory of the South-Western district of Stavropol. The measurement of the noise load was carried out in accordance with GOST 23337-2014 “Noise. Methods for measuring noise in residential areas and in residential and public buildings”. To analyze and compare the data obtained with the maximum permissible value, SanPiN 1.2.3685-21 “Hygienic standards and requirements for ensuring the safety and (or) harmlessness of environmental factors for humans” was used. The measurement results revealed excess of maximum permissible noise level on the territory of the residential complex «Perspektivny» and «Rossiysky», and the houses within the residential complex «Perspektivny» suffer most from the proximity of the roadway and the absence or partial landscaping. Noise values were recorded near residential buildings in the range of 70 dBA. On the territory of the residential complex “Rossiysky”, high indicators are found on the sidewalk near the South-Western bypass. No excess of maximum permissible noise load level was noticed directly at the houses. The resulting mathematical model reflects the dependence of the noise level on the presence and absence of foliage and the density of traffic flow. Based on the data obtained, we can conclude that the residential complexes «Perspektivny» and «Rossiysky» are subject to significant noise pollution. This can be attributed to shortcomings in the planning of territory development and the increase in the number of vehicles.
The object of the study is the landslide activity in the Republic of Dagestan. The paper considers the results of systematization and analysis of various sources containing information on the activity and danger of landslide processes in the settlements of the republic for 2004–2022. The conditions, causes, activity and danger of landslide manifestations on their territory are characterized. The role of natural and man-made factors in the development of this process and its obvious timing to the winter-spring-summer period of the year (the time of snowmelt and abnormal precipitation) is determined. 46 settlements were identified (in 21 administrative districts of the republic), where significant landslides occurred over the period under consideration. Most of these rural settlements are located in the low and middle mountainous parts of the republic. The largest number of affected settlements (from the studied processes) are located in the Tsumadinsky and Akhvakhsky administrative districts of the republic. It is noted that in the period from 2004 to 2022, the greatest landslide activity was observed in 2014, and a very weak degree was observed in 2010, 2013 and 2021. In 2006, 2017 and 2019, landslides in the settlements of the republic were not recorded. The most catastrophic landslide processes over the studied period of time were observed in the villages of Hebda and Golotl in the Shamil district. The article provides information on the scale of the collapse deformations and destruction of residential infrastructure on the territory of settlements. The analysis of the socio-economic consequences of the landslide allows us to speak about a fairly significant degree of their danger to the life of the population in the mountainous part of the republic.
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLOITATION OF OIL AND GAS FIELDS (TECHNICAL SCIENCES)
The object of the study is the Cenomanian deposit during the period of self-damping of wells. The accumulation of droplet liquid causes destruction of the rock skeleton and increases pressure loss during gas movement in the well, which affects the dynamics of the operating stock indicators. The experience of introducing pipes with a diameter of 114 mm at the Yamburgskoye field increased the water-free period of well operation without self-pressure. Based on the available information on the development of the Cenomanian deposit, a forecast was made of the likely beginning of self-suffocation of the well stock for the current period until 2030. Thus, the results and forecast estimates showed that in almost all analyzed wells, conditions for water removal are maintained for a period of up to five years, and in some, waterless conditions will remain for more than ten years. Thus, it is recommended to replace the lift string for each specific well by analyzing its operating conditions and using temporary killing technology using special lightweight solutions that do not lead to contamination of the bottom-hole zone of the formation. During the development of Cenomanian deposits in the fields of the Far North, in the process of reducing reservoir pressure, fluid accumulation occurs at the bottom. For efficient operation of wells, it is necessary to create optimal technological operating modes for water removal and carry out measures to limit water inflows. Having analyzed various methods of combating self-squeezing of wells, it was concluded that in the conditions of development of the Yamburg field, the most effective is to replace lift pipes with pipes of smaller diameter, which allows increasing the rate of gas rise into the tubing and leads to self-cleaning of wells from liquid accumulating at the bottom.
The article studies the wells that opened clayey reservoirs of Paleogene age. When predicting the trajectory of a crack during hydraulic fracturing (HF), it is necessary to take into account the percentage of minerals in the rock, since cracks during hydraulic fracturing are formed at the contacts between mineral grains. This conclusion is indisputable, but obtaining complete information about the percentage of minerals in a rock is an expensive and not always feasible task. At the same time, the physical and mechanical characteristics of clayey rocks are no less significantly influenced by their porosity. Therefore, it is important to note that a reliable determination of the porosity coefficient from the exposed geological section will undoubtedly have a primary positive impact on the reliability of hydraulic fracturing modeling. Based on this, in wells that opened clayey reservoirs, the values of porosity coefficients determined by various methods were analyzed, including the direct one – analysis of core, cuttings and the indirect one – geophysical methods. During the work, a coincidence of the porosity coefficient in the core, cuttings and electrical logging was discovered. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that the porosity coefficient determined from acoustic logging (AL) significantly exceeds the values of the porosity coefficient determined from core, cuttings and induction logging. This is due both to the influence of clay content on the acoustic logging readings, and due to the low quality of AC materials induced by erosion of the wellbore. It should be noted that the calculations of porosity coefficients in the above-reference part – in the Batalpashinsky formation based on core and induction logging – coincide almost completely. However, in the sub-reference part of the formation the readings differ slightly. The porosity coefficient calculated is a maximum of 2% lower than the porosity coefficient determined from the core, which is quite acceptable.