GEOLOGY, PROSPECTING AND EXPLORATION OF OIL AND GAS FIELDS (GEOLOGICAL AND MINERALOGICAL SCIENCES)
Climate change is observed in all regions of the planet. This process is becoming more intense, and some of the emerging trends are already irreversible, at least at this stage. However, it is within the power of humanity to limit the scale of climate change, significantly reducing emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere, including greenhouse gases, it is possible to considerably improve air quality and stabilize global temperatures in a short time. The object of the study is the process of pumping carbon dioxide into cement used for grouting oil and gas wells. The study is based on the analysis of the relevance of the decarbonization project in the oil and gas industry, existing well cementing technologies, as well as methods of concrete production with carbon dioxide. In the course of the work, two hypotheses for injecting carbon dioxide into cement were identified. They use the basic method of cementing: mixing CO2, water and cement separately and cement with water immediately with CO2. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that the development and implementation of these technologies has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contributes to the achievement of sustainable development goals.
In order to increase the efficiency of hydrocarbon (HC) field development and design of geological and technological activities based on available data, it is advisable to study not only the geological conditions of oil and gas deposits and fields, but also the geodynamic conditions. It is worth noting that during the search and exploration of HC fields in the study area, geodynamic conditions were previously practically not taken into account, due to the lack of both a theoretical basis and a reliable methodology. The research studies the geodynamic conditions of the territory of Iraq and the adjacent states. The study was conducted to identify the most promising areas for the development of HC fields based on oil and gas geological zoning. The research methodology is based on well-established methods of group geological survey, system-aerospace methods in combination with geophysical methods and virtually unknown methods of geodynamic analysis, ore-oil- and-gas-geological zoning, structural-metric method and method of interpretation of central-type structures and lineaments with allocation of geodynamic centers, compression and extension (vacuum) zones, interference zones and subvertical destruction zones. The initial materials for conducting scientific research are primarily space images of various scales, physical-geographical maps, topographic maps, structural maps and seismic activity maps, as well as flow rate maps of production wells or cumulative oil and gas production. The work provides brief comments on the compiled multi-scale maps-schemes, to which the territory of Iraq is confined and the identified promising areas for prospecting, exploration and even development of mineral deposits (especially oil and gas) and specific locations of possible catastrophic earthquakes.
ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, POLITICAL AND RECREATIONAL GEOGRAPHY (GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES)
The study considers territorial features of migration and migration intentions of student youth of Stavropol Krai and the Republic of Dagestan, the relevance of which is due to the increased migration mobility of young people, which is determined by life plans after graduation. The study is based on the analysis of statistical data of a mass online survey of students of secondary vocational educational institutions. The sample of respondents was more than 2,100 people. To conduct a sociological study, a special questionnaire was developed with “open” and “closed” types of questions. The study included consideration of push and pull factors of migration, as well as the qualitative composition of respondents. The study showed similar features of migration and migration intentions of student youth of Stavropol Krai and the Republic of Dagestan, which, first of all, depend on the “center-periphery” positioning of territories. Within Russia, the greatest attractiveness for potential migrants pose Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov- on-Don and Krasnodar Krai. Within the regions under study, the maximum direction of migration intentions is associated with the administrative centers - Stavropol and Makhachkala. An important difference of Stavropol Krai is its greater attractiveness for educational migrants from outside the region, which is associated with the peculiarities of its geographical location, ethnic and ethnodemographic processes and the level of socio-economic development. In turn, a specific feature of the migration intentions of student youth in the Republic of Dagestan is the higher attractiveness of the respondents' small homeland, which is associated, in our opinion, with the traditional foundations of society in the region. To curb the outflow of youth from the regions under study, first of all, comprehensive socioeconomic development of the territories is necessary.
GEOECOLOGY
The results of systematization and analysis of various sources containing information on the activity and danger of rockslides-screes processes on the roads of the Chechen Republic in 2008-2022 are considered. The greatest rockslides and talus activation (with material damage) on the roads of the republic was observed in 2016-2017. The maximum number of activation cases was in spring-summer period and was mainly due to heavy precipitation. The conditions, causes, activity and danger of rockslides and screes manifestations on the roads of the republic are characterized. During the studied period, about 70 cases (with material damage) were recorded on highways passing through the territory of the Vedensky, Itum-Kalinsky and Shatoy administrative districts of the republic. Information is given on the activity and extent of rockslides-screes deformations and roadbed failures in these areas during the studied period. The greatest rockslides and screes processes activation were observed on the roads of the Shatoy district (more than 40 cases). It was noted that the volume of rockslides and screes masses on the roads of the republic mainly varied from 100 m3 to 17.5 thousand m3. The largest collapse process (30.0 thousand m3) was recorded on October 14, 2008 on the Grozny-Shatoy highway in the Shatoy district. Sections of roads where rockslides and screes were periodically observed in different years have been identified. The length of the sections of the republican highways affected by rockslides-screes processes amounted to 1,452 km, of which: paved roads — 0.546 km, unpaved roads — 0.906 km. The maximum length of sections of the republican highways affected by rockslides-screes processes was noted in 2016 and 2017. The analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of the rockslides-screes processes that have occurred allows us to conclude that their degree of danger to the automobile network of the republic is quite low.
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLOITATION OF OIL AND GAS FIELDS (TECHNICAL SCIENCES)
An approach to probabilistic assessment of field development forecast parameters for gas-condensate reservoir using multivariant simulation was studied. The necessity of such decision may be explained by the aim to level the influence of large number of uncertainties which occur during the work with reservoir simulation models. «tNavigator» software was used as the main instrument since it provides wide functionality in the sphere of interest. The variants of variables implementation were studied, the review of experimental designs and optimization algorithms was done. At the first step, the simulation model was history matched using Differential Evolution algorithm, since its initial version had problems with phase withdrawals and pressure dynamics. Corresponding history matching quality was controlled by specially generated objective function values. At the second step a series of production forecasts based on the best history matching cases was calculated; cumulative distribution functions for field development parameters under consideration were received to get the necessary probabilistic assessment. As a result, the workflow for values of interest getting was provided; also, the variants of further modifications for studied approach were formulated: the number of simulation runs can be decreased through the choice of three base variants and use of multi-dimensional scaling which provides the opportunity for realizations of equal probability clustering with further choice of representative cases.
Sucker-rod pumping unit in operation after huff and puff cyclic steam injection operates in a wide range of rheological properties of fluids and medium temperatures. During the initial stage after steam injection, hot liquid fluids are extracted with a temperature of about 200°C and a viscosity of several tens of cP. During this period, all injected water is also pumped out of the reservoir, which entered the reservoir in the form of steam during steam injection phase. After several months of operation, after the bottom-hole zone cools down, the viscosity of the oil increases to several hundred cP. The influence of stable emulsions on the properties of fluids also increases. These changes lead to increased loads and torque on pumping equipment during operation, which leads to premature failures. The challenge to secure long-term operations with a high mean time between failures of pumping units is critical and demanding. The analysis of the main causes and trends of low mean time between failure using a large array of information and data was performed. Certain big data analysis approaches have been developed and presented and used to formulated qualitative and quantitative conclusions and recommendations. The field uses the same type of pumping equipment with only a change in the diameter of the plunger depending on the flow rate. Based on the results of the analysis, the area of the field was identified where it is necessary to make significant changes in the pump parameters due to the increased viscosity of the oil. In such conditions according to world practice longer stroke sucker-rod pumping unit is used reducing the number of strokes, increasing mean time between failure. Experience in similar fields in other regions of the world also indicates the need to use machine learning to improve pump performance.
ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE SCIENCES
A sinusoidal model of the dynamics of mudflow series, temperature and precipitation in the warm seasons in the high-mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria complements the previously obtained statistical analysis of the average characteristics of the series, results of a comparative analysis of their average values for two subperiods (base 1953-1983 and modern 1984-2015), improves the quality of the unidirectional regression model of the number of mudflows and meteorological parameters over the past 60 years. The article shows that the use of the sinusoidal regression function makes it possible to identify the cyclicity of time series, which will help in assessing the dynamics of mudflows taking into account long-term changes in climate variables. The increased efficiency of the models is confirmed by the criteria. The coefficient of determination R2, determined for linear regression models, increases in sinusoidal regression models: for series with the number of mudflows from R2 = 0.067 to R2 = 0.645, for precipitation from R2 = 0.028 to R2 = 0.653, for temperatures from R2 = 0.012 to R2 = 0.829. In the sinusoidal regression model, using eight harmonics, short-period ripples are added against the background of slow changes. In the series with mudflows, these are short periods from T = 2.4 years to T = 10.7 years against the background of the main period T = 62 years. In the series of temperatures there are short periods from T = 1.9 years to T = 5.2 years to a long period T = 63 years. In the series with precipitation, a long period T = 20.1 years is added to the short periods from T = 2.2 years to T = 8.7 years. The identified long-period fluctuations in mudflows and temperatures (T = 62 years, 63 years) are associated with significant and nonlinear changes in the elements of these series during the period under study. In contrast to these series, the precipitation series is dominated by short-period changes (T = 4 years) against a background of slow fluctuations with a period of T = 20.1 years.
Hazardous weather phenomena cause enormous damage to the entire national economy. Hail storms, heavy rains, frosts, droughts, sand and dust storms are detrimental to agriculture. In this regard, currently one of the crop production problems is to reduce the risks associated with dangerous weather phenomena. The object of this study is the optimization of the structure of agricultural production with account of hail storms. To decrease hail storms damage, it is customary to use active methods related to the impact on hail processes in order to suppress them, and passive methods, namely the establishment of various anti-hail nets. The study proposes a method of decision-taking theory as a part of mathematical modeling methods: optimization of the structure of cultivated crops taking into consideration the peculiarities of their sensitivity to hail damage. In addition, adjustments are being made to the effectiveness of measures to decrease hail storms damage. Measures can be developed by the director if the company is provided with a hail forecast. The optimization problem is solved with the reference to the adjusted damageability coefficient introduced in accordance with the hail-warning forecast up to three days. To solve the problem, numerical experiments are carried out using the «Solution Search» add-in for Excel. In the course of the work, it was found that the proposed approach, which requires the formation of an action plan taking into account the hail forecast, is highly effective in decreasing hail storms damage and regulating the amount of profit from crop production. According to the results of the research, it was concluded that providing the industry with a hail-warning forecast up to three days will reduce the risks from hail storms.